Volume 67 No.1 - 2021-03-31

Testing the Model of Juvenile Delinquency’s Occurrence and Frequency

青少年偏差行為發生與否及發生頻率之模型建構

Author：
Ling-Ling Kueh, Hsuan Hung, Yuk-Ying Tung / 郭玲玲、洪瑄、董旭英
Keyword：
life strains, attachment, delinquency, association with deviant peers, zero-inflated negative binomial regression / 生活緊張、依附關係、青少年偏差行為、接觸偏差同儕、零膨脹負二項迴歸
  • Summary
  • Chinese Summary
  • Reference
  • Scholarly references
The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of attachment, life strains and association with deviant peers on frequency of juvenile delinquency by using the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model with R. The graphical tool “rootogram” was utilized for the goodness-of-fit visualization of the ZINB model. Research participants were 947 students in Tainan, Taiwan. The results were as follows: (1) life strains and association with deviant peers were significantly associated with the occurrence of delinquency; (2) attachment and association with deviant peers were significant predictors for the magnitude of delinquency; (3) ZINB outperformed negative binomial model for count data analysis with excessive number of responses of zero, and with over-dispersed distribution.
由於青少年偏差行為具有計數之資料型態，且常出現大量零之非常態分布， 因此本研究提出零膨脹負二項迴歸模型，試圖突破過去青少年偏差行為研究受到 資料異質性以及過度離散的限制，同時考量青少年依附關係、生活緊張及接觸偏 差同儕分別對偏差行為發生與否，以及發生頻率兩大面向的影響，最後輔以根方 圖作為模型適配度檢視的方法。本研究有效樣本為臺南市國中生947人。研究結 果發現:一、生活緊張與偏差同儕是誘發青少年偏差行為的影響因素;二、接觸 偏差同儕催化青少年偏差行為發生的頻率，家庭依附關係則降低偏差行為之發生 頻率;三、對於出現大量零以及過度離散的計數資料，零膨脹負二項迴歸分析方 法所建構之模型相對適配。研究最後並提出有關青少年學校輔導及後續研究之相 關建議。

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